Abstract:
Communicable diseases are the major causes of morbidity and mortality in Kenya. They retard both social and economic development since an unhealthy nation is riddled with poverty and underdevelopment. The inability to control and manage these diseases has been attributed among others to lack of resources, change of social patterns, lack of public health education and abject poverty. Subjective assessments of trends have thus been the basis For decision making regarding management of these diseases. In fact, actions are mostly taken when there are major outbreaks. Statistical models are important tools that are used in analyzing causal relationships. In this study, statistical models are applied in assessing trends and forecasting of future trends of some communicable diseases in Kenya namely: Tuberculosis, Measles, Hepatitis, Tetanus and Poliomyelitis. These models were fitted to count-data based on reported cases of people infected by each of the five communicable diseases. The assessment of trends was done using generalized linear models while time series models were used to forecast future trends. The rate of infection of a particular type of communicable disease was evidently provided during the analysis and this issue is expected to contribute to the control and management of these diseases.
