Abstract:
Climate variability is an emerging global environmental issue of concern, posing a threat especially for pastoral livelihoods of communities in arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs), necessitating an understanding of the emerging climate variability effects on local ecosystems. This study sought to understand the effects of climate variability on pastoralism, focusing on Turkana Central Sub-County in Kenya. The specific objectives of the study were: to analyse rainfall and temperature variability for the period 1983 to 2014; to determine the effects of rainfall and temperature variability on pasture availability; to determine the effects of rainfall and temperature variability on water accessibility; and to assess the adaptation strategies to climate variability in Turkana Central. Two research designs were used in this study: longitudinal and cross-sectional designs. Stratified random sampling technique was employed to select a sample. The sample size was 100 household heads practising pastoralism within the study area. Primary data was collected through household surveys and focus group discussions (FGDs). Secondary data included Landsat images - for 1984, 2002 and 2014 - from which Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values were computed. Primary data was analysed using both descriptive and inferential statistics: measures of central tendency and dispersion, Spearman’s correlation and Chi-square test. Results from the study indicated that there was an increase of 160.7 mm in rainfall and 0.4°C in temperature during the period 1983 and 2014. However, the study findings indicated an increase in drought duration, frequency and severity, according to 82 % of the respondents. Both pasture and water availability in Turkana Central Sub-County had increased as rainfall amounts increased and temperatures remained relatively the same over the years; the surface area covered by vegetation and water had increased by 317.9 Km2 and 60.5 Km2, respectively. Based on the perceptions of respondents, rainfall variability had a strong positive and significant effect on pasture availability and water accessibility (r = 0.701, p< 0.00; r = 0.925; p< 0.00). Temperature variability had a weak positive but insignificant effect on pasture availability (r = 0.217; p< 0.309), while it had a moderate positive and significant effect on water accessibility (r = 0.357; p< 0.007). The study further established that the most effective indigenous adaptation strategies were migration and herd diversification, whereas the widely adopted modern adaptation strategies were fodder provision and usage of boreholes and water tanks. In conclusion, climate in Turkana Central has become more variable, necessitating more adoption of modern adaptation strategies to mitigate negative effects of severe droughts.
