Abstract:
Compared to other dairy cattle breeds, Friesian is considered more sensitive to climate
change induced stresses of thermal load, feed and water scarcity and disease outbreaks in the
tropics, but it is a popularly utilized dairy cattle breed in Kenya highlands across the
production environments. This study applied climate analogue concept with Njoro being the
reference site and its 2050’s climate analogue site identified on criteria of similarity index of
0.8-0.9. The study projected utilization of Friesian under changing and variable climate based
on the differences between Njoro presently and its 2050’s climate analogue site (Shawa) in
animal heat load stress, physiological and hematological responses, production performance,
and farm climate-smart management practices. Results suggest that Njoro in the 2050’s will
likely experience increasing temperatures, but changes in rainfall are uncertain. The
increasing temperatures will likely be accompanied with mild thermal stress for Friesian
cattle, especially during dry seasons or drought periods. The likely climate change and
variability could increase prevalence of East Coast Fever (ECF), Anaplasmosis, Foot and
Mouth Disease (FMD) and Pink eye diseases and shift preference from Friesian to Ayrshire
cattle breed. Friesian cattle will likely experience some elevated physiological and
hematological responses, though will remain within the normal margins but could decrease
fertility and milk yield. Dairy production system will likely shift from intensive to pasture
grazing on natural pastures with greater use of hay, but disease control and sourcing of
climate adaptation information are unlikely to change. With the magnitude of challenges
expected for utilization of Friesian cattle breed in Njoro in the 2050’s, establishing farmers
network platforms is suggested to foster sharing of experiences between the climate
analogue sites.
