Applying climate analogue concept to assess adaption of Friesian cattle breed to changing and variable climate in the Kenya highlands

Abstract

Compared to other dairy cattle breeds, Friesian is considered more sensitive to climate change induced stresses of thermal load, feed and water scarcity and disease outbreaks in the tropics, but it is a popularly utilized dairy cattle breed in Kenya highlands across the production environments. This study applied climate analogue concept with Njoro being the reference site and its 2050’s climate analogue site identified on criteria of similarity index of 0.8-0.9. The study projected utilization of Friesian under changing and variable climate based on the differences between Njoro presently and its 2050’s climate analogue site (Shawa) in animal heat load stress, physiological and hematological responses, production performance, and farm climate-smart management practices. Results suggest that Njoro in the 2050’s will likely experience increasing temperatures, but changes in rainfall are uncertain. The increasing temperatures will likely be accompanied with mild thermal stress for Friesian cattle, especially during dry seasons or drought periods. The likely climate change and variability could increase prevalence of East Coast Fever (ECF), Anaplasmosis, Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) and Pink eye diseases and shift preference from Friesian to Ayrshire cattle breed. Friesian cattle will likely experience some elevated physiological and hematological responses, though will remain within the normal margins but could decrease fertility and milk yield. Dairy production system will likely shift from intensive to pasture grazing on natural pastures with greater use of hay, but disease control and sourcing of climate adaptation information are unlikely to change. With the magnitude of challenges expected for utilization of Friesian cattle breed in Njoro in the 2050’s, establishing farmers network platforms is suggested to foster sharing of experiences between the climate analogue sites.