Effects of climate variability and change on agricultural production:The case of small scale farmers in Kenya.

Abstract

tAgriculture is the mainstay of the Kenyan economy, contributing to food security and employment ofrural households. Climate variability and change have adversely affected this sector and the situation isexpected to worsen in the future. We estimate the effect of climate variability and change on revenuefrom all crops, maize and tea separately, using a household fixed effects estimator. We find that climatevariability and change affects agricultural production but effects differ across crops. Temperature has anegative effect on crop and maize revenues but a positive one on tea, while rainfall has a negative effect ontea. We find that tea relies on stable temperatures and consistent rainfall patterns and any excess wouldnegatively affect production. Temperature has a greater impact on crop production than rainfall. Climatechange will adversely affect agriculture in 2020, 2030 and 2040 with greater effects in the tea sector.Therefore, rethinking the likely harmful effects of rising temperatures and increasing rainfall uncertaintyshould be a priority in Kenya. Implementing adaptation measures at national, county and farm levels aswell as putting in place policies that prevent destruction of the natural environment will assist to addressthe challenges posed by climate variability and change.